RESEARCH OF RISKS OF PLANS (PROJECTS) OF THE SEA TRANSPORT ENTERPRISES BY THE METHOD OF MULTIFACTOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS


  • O.I. SHUMLIANSKA

Abstract

In conditions of changeable state of market of the sea transport services the sea transport enterprises have to react upon the environment’s changes adequately and effectively for the purpose of increasing the competitiveness, of supporting financial stability and for the purpose of successful development. Ensuring such ability requires working out a system of revealing and estimating the possible divergences between the real (factual) production and financial indices and planned indices. This system leans upon the market researches. The notion of plan (project) risk can be assumed as a basis of such system. A risk is connected with a sensitivity which can be represented as a measure of risk. Hence, “plan (project) research on risk” is connected tightly with “plan (project) research on sensitivity”, improvement of which is dictated by the necessity of effective planning the enterprise’s activity in market conditions.
In order to reveal the possible risk losses related to reaction of the plan (project) criteria upon the factors’ change, the method of multifactor sensitivity research has been offered. The average multifactor index of sensitivity (MIS) of the plan (project) for the criterion y(x1,..., xn ) towards the set of any permissible changes of all n factors {Δxi} (i=1,…,n) , sens( y, (x1,..., xn )) , (or of factors’ group n1 ( xi ) (i ε I ε {1,2,..., n}) , sens( y,(xi ,iε I ε {1,2,..., n})) , is called the quotient obtained when the relative n -factor (or n1 -factor) increment of the criterion Δy/ y, that related to one factor, is divided by the root-mean-square relative change of the changed factors. At standard (identical-percentage) factor’s changes we received the average standard MIS (SMIS) that allows estimating the plan criterion’s sensitivity in conditions of uncertainty. If the module of the SMIS is less than 1 the plan criterion is considered stable concerning the factors’ change, i.e. it is not risky; otherwise the plan criterion is considered unstable, i.e. it is risky.
The developed method of researching plans’ (projects’) risks on the basis of multifactor sensitivity analysis reveals the risky plan indexes quantitatively. It will allow to make corresponding decisions concerning managing risky plan criteria, aimed to decreasing plan risks. It should promote increasing the efficiency of the ports’, of the shipping companies’ management decisions in conditions of functioning in changeable market environment, increasing the efficiency of using the ports’, the shipping companies’ production and financial potential.

Author Biography

O.I. SHUMLIANSKA

k.e.n., assistant professor,

Odessa National Maritime University,

Mechnikov street, 34, Odesa, Ukraine, 65029

 

Published
2016-09-09
How to Cite
SHUMLIANSKA, O. (2016). RESEARCH OF RISKS OF PLANS (PROJECTS) OF THE SEA TRANSPORT ENTERPRISES BY THE METHOD OF MULTIFACTOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS. Economic Innovations, 18(2(62), 64-69. Retrieved from http://ei-journal.com/index.php/journal/article/view/301